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Financial, 29/01/18

Euribor, past and future


 

How will the main benchmark index for loans evolve?

 

The Euribor is an average interest rate in the European interbank market. It is calculated daily by taking the average of short-term lending transactions between the main European banks.

It is the most widely used index for the periodic review of the interest rate of a loan or credit, not only for companies, but also for individuals, especially in housing finance operations.

In recent years this index has fallen very substantially, as the graph shows

Thus, the 12-month Euribor has been negative since February 2016.

We see that in recent years the cost of money has been substantially reduced for individuals and companies with long-term loans, which has undoubtedly eased the burden on families, thus encouraging domestic consumption.

Financial institutions responded to the fall in the index in two ways; on the one hand, they were forced to reduce what they paid their customers for their deposits (fixed terms, etc.), so that in practice their return is currently zero.

And on the other hand, they are offering short and medium term loans (up to 3 years) at relatively high fixed rates; some entities have also encouraged their clients to convert their long-term variable loans (mortgages) to fixed rates.

All this with the intention of recovering their intermediation margin, what they have left after collecting what they lend and paying those who lend to them.

Analysts predict a negative Euribor in 2018, and a slight recovery of the index in 2019, without reaching half a percentage point.

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